Advanced simulation
Posted: Wed 13 May 2020, 17:49
I shall be very grateful to any fellow Puppy enthusiasts, who happen to be into the tricky area of modelling and simulation (I'm not), and who are able to offer me an informed opinion on the quality of modelling used in this recently-released research study.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553
(2.1 MB pdf, to me fascinating, and very well worth downloading).
To those of us reading this who are not, the science IMVHO looks to be very good - and the quality of simulation vastly better than the allegedly very defective modelling used by a prominent UK team, the leader of which was recently disgraced and unfrocked, which may have been terribly misleading to my (UK) government, and others. Should such be so, the butcher's bill is likely to run to countless thousands of avoidable deaths, hence my enquiry here.
To those of us who are not deeply into the science or the modelling, skip the heavy science and just go to the stark conclusions starting on p. 15, which are quite sombre and emphasise the extreme urgency for governments to get their acts together swiftly before they lose control altogether. Afterwards, take a look at the charts on pp 5, 8, 9 to get a quick handle on the grim picture which might unfold lest national bureaucrats wise-up immediately.
Finally, forum members might be interested to follow the link posted halfway down p 11 - the authors have taken the most unusual step of making (some of) their modelling software active online, presumably primarily to help govt. policymakers reach their own conclusions if only they could have the wits, but it's there ready for you to have a go with your own scenario should you so wish.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553
(2.1 MB pdf, to me fascinating, and very well worth downloading).
To those of us reading this who are not, the science IMVHO looks to be very good - and the quality of simulation vastly better than the allegedly very defective modelling used by a prominent UK team, the leader of which was recently disgraced and unfrocked, which may have been terribly misleading to my (UK) government, and others. Should such be so, the butcher's bill is likely to run to countless thousands of avoidable deaths, hence my enquiry here.
To those of us who are not deeply into the science or the modelling, skip the heavy science and just go to the stark conclusions starting on p. 15, which are quite sombre and emphasise the extreme urgency for governments to get their acts together swiftly before they lose control altogether. Afterwards, take a look at the charts on pp 5, 8, 9 to get a quick handle on the grim picture which might unfold lest national bureaucrats wise-up immediately.
Finally, forum members might be interested to follow the link posted halfway down p 11 - the authors have taken the most unusual step of making (some of) their modelling software active online, presumably primarily to help govt. policymakers reach their own conclusions if only they could have the wits, but it's there ready for you to have a go with your own scenario should you so wish.